Europe Between Strategic Autonomy and Systemic Vulnerability: Geopolitical Drift in the Age of Transactional Power

Abstract

The contemporary international system is increasingly characterized by geopolitical fragmentation, transactional diplomacy, strategic competition, and the gradual erosion of the liberal rules-based order that shaped post-Cold War global governance. Within this unstable context, the European Union faces mounting pressure to redefine its geopolitical role while simultaneously confronting structural vulnerabilities related to security dependence, economic competitiveness, energy instability, technological dependency, democratic polarization, and social fragmentation. This paper examines the emerging tension between Europe’s ambition for strategic autonomy and its persistent systemic vulnerabilities in an era increasingly dominated by transactional power politics, shifting alliances, and multipolar geopolitical uncertainty. The study explores how the transformation of American foreign policy, the rise of China as a global systemic competitor, Russia’s geopolitical revisionism, and the growing influence of flexible “coalitions of the willing” challenge Europe’s traditional security architecture and economic model. Particular attention is given to the contradictions embedded within the European project itself: the simultaneous pursuit of military rearmament, green economic transition, social cohesion, democratic stability, and fiscal sustainability. The analysis argues that Europe is entering a period of strategic overstretch in which competing political, economic, and security priorities become increasingly difficult to reconcile. Drawing upon interdisciplinary perspectives from geopolitics, international relations, political economy, European studies, and strategic governance, the paper investigates how transactional leadership models, protectionist economic tendencies, technological rivalry, and democratic fatigue contribute to a broader process of geopolitical drift. The study further examines the rise of populist and far-right movements across Europe as both a symptom and consequence of prolonged insecurity, economic anxiety, and declining trust in institutional governance. In this context, strategic autonomy emerges not as a fully achievable geopolitical condition, but as a contested and evolving process shaped by external dependencies and internal fragmentation. The paper argues that the future of Europe will likely depend less on restoring previous models of global stability and more on its capacity to adapt to a fluid geopolitical environment characterized by temporary alliances, hybrid economic-security arrangements, technological competition, and permanent crisis management. Ultimately, the study contributes to current debates regarding the future of European integration, global governance, democratic resilience, and the transformation of international order in the age of transactional power.